April 1 has come and gone, and all of the college admissions decisions are in. As the dust settles, we’re seeing some very interesting patterns emerge for the class of 2023 and for the future of college admissions. And while this news isn’t pretty, it’s vital to be well-informed when approaching your child’s college future.
There are 3 key factors to watch as your child moves closer to college:
- The test-optional movement
- Drastic changes to applicant pools (and therefore admit rates)
- Change on the horizon: The Supreme Court
And what do these factors actually mean for students? Let’s dive in.
We’ll start in the most familiar territory: Test-Optional
Will it continue? Or will the wave of lowered testing requirements be stopped in its path? With key players firmly divided – MIT and Georgetown in camp test-required, while Columbia University and the UCs are fully in the test-optional and test-free zone – it’s hard to say which way the cookie will crumble as temporary test-optional policies expire. But one thing is certain: there are, and will continue to be, more permanently test-optional and test-blind institutions than we could have dreamed of before 2020.
So that brings us to factor 2, which is not unrelated: Changes to applicant pools
Without the barrier of a required test score, 2020 unlocked the floodgates to a seemingly new pool of applicants – especially at the highly selective level. Students who wouldn’t have applied to the tough-to-get-into schools previously because their SAT and ACT scores simply weren’t competitive began applying. The trick is that these students turned out to be incredibly competitive in every other way. So began a wave of increases in applicant numbers, drastic drops in admit rates, and unpredictable yield numbers at colleges across the nation.
Simply put, though there is roughly the same number of applicants, they have ceased to follow the patterns they did pre-pandemic, causing a mass redistribution of applicant numbers and wreaking havoc on admissions.
As we roll into a 4th season of test-optional admissions, application numbers continue to rise unpredictably for some campuses while other campuses struggle to attract enough students to stay afloat. Here are a few examples of significant changes in college selectivity we’ve been watching closely.
| Institution Name | Class of 2020 | Class of 2023 |
| USC | 16% | 8% |
| NYU | 15% | 8% |
| Harvard | 5.2% | 3.41% |
| UCLA | 14% | 8.6% |
And finally, the biggest unknown (factor 3): The Supreme Court and Race-Conscious Admissions
The Supreme Court’s decision regarding race-conscious decisions in college admissions is quickly approaching (most likely June 2023), which will likely mean even more admissions policy changes just around the corner. And while changes to policy at the institutional level will hinge upon the precise wording of the decision (not just its siding), we are certain that if the ruling makes significant changes to how race can be used in admissions as it’s expected to, it will mean further changes to an already unpredictable landscape for all applicants.
The bottom line: Colleges are surprisingly unpredictable in their admissions decisions right now, and are likely to remain so for the upcoming 3 seasons. So here’s our best advice for action steps your child can take to set themselves up for success:
Seniors:
Because the landscape is all over the place, we’ve seen a lot of incredibly strong applicants land on waitlists. If your child, or someone you know, is hanging their hopes on a waitlist turning into an admit, make sure they choose a school they were admitted to and submit a deposit by May 1. Waitlist decisions typically come out after May 1, and you don’t want to hold onto false hope or end up without options.
Juniors:
While we don’t know what unexpected outcomes we’ll see for the class of 2024, we can count on seeing them. To account for this predictable unpredictability, Juniors should apply broadly, expanding their lists with likely and possible schools to ensure that they will have strong options to choose from in this shifting landscape.
And word to the wise: finding the best right-fit schools and applying to these schools is more important than ever, so we highly recommend that families get expert help with the first step: college research and list-building.
Sophomores & younger students:
As we continue to monitor the changing admissions milieu, two things remain constant: the importance of the high school transcript, and the value of authenticity. So younger students, get the best grades you can, and challenge yourself in subjects that interest you by choosing Honors and AP level courses whenever possible.
This is important outside of the classroom too. So lean into your passions when choosing how to spend time outside the classroom. With so many incredible student applicants, the best way to set yourself apart is to choose activities that are authentic to your own growth, and those that show genuine acts of service.
At Colledge, we want to help. Students are at the center of what we do, and we want to reach as many families as possible with good information and counseling. So if you’re at a loss for how to set your child up for success, or if you know other parents whom you think might value the kind of high quality partnership we offer, we do still have room in our Early Start and All-Inclusive programs this year. Follow our College Admissions Literacy Series Events for more, and reach out to get started with your child’s Student Assessment for Admission.
